Ireland Declares Climate Emergency

[NickThePartsGuy]

No NCTs will be provided for petrol / diesel car after 2045. Its a good way off - so who knows what will have happened by then. Maybe someone will crack the hydrogen fuel cell and we can continue to drive our cars and just emit water!

didnt top gear do a video of a honda in America running on hydrogen years back?
be interesting to see it happen at some stage

looks like ill be holding off on the idea of getting a 335D touring next year

[kdevitt]

didnt top gear do a video of a honda in America running on hydrogen years back?

Honda have a production hydrogen car - not sure of the numbers. BMW had an E32 7 series running on it. I think its the holy grail of environmentally friendly motoring - problem is that no one seems to have cracked an efficient way of producing the hydrogen. Seems to require a lot of energy.

[kdevitt]

https://automobiles.honda.com/clarity-fuel-cell

[dergside]

Toyota Mirai........

[FunkySeeFunkyDoo]

So in the future, will all our single room communal apartment blocks have enough charging points or what? Will we have to scrap with our neighbors for use of the kitchen and ev charging point? Maybe we’ll all just have to use public transport...oh wait


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[dergside]

Maybe we’ll all just have to use public transport...oh wait

Maybe those that bought lawn mowers, etc. through the Bike to Work scheme might actually get a bike next time they are eligible and maybe some of those that bought bikes might actually use them? Crazy thoughts, I know......

I've been watching the commentary, here and in the media, and I think it is slowly beginning to dawn on people that Climate Change is actually a life changing thing that we have to accept and embrace. Pffaffing about, tinkering with little things, etc. won't achieve what's actually needed. The changes that we need to make now, and in the years ahead, are going to have to be fairly radical precisely because we buried our heads in the sand for years while we burned everything in sight. The question is whether we have the capability to develop the technology and efficiency we need to avoid significant negative lifestyle changes (or existential worries) in the time we have?

What was announced yesterday was lacking quite a bit of solid ideas and specific action and intentions, but it did set out a little bit more clearly the approach that is going to be taken. Solar, wind and wave energy harvesting is key to meeting energy needs going forward. Reducing consumption through efficiency will be important. Over time, passive buildings must be the norm, not just for new building, but also retrospectively, BER exempt or poor performing properties we have today will need massive retro-fit upgrades. Transport, farting animals, etc. will all have to come up with plans to reduce their impact, including us drivers. Renewable sources of power will be needed to meet our existing energy needs and also provide for the extra energy for the things that derive their power from other sources today. Tax policy will be used to change practices, in the same way that they nudged a great many people to diesel cars from 2008 (even though that particular example was perhaps a little misguided). That means that inefficiency and "nasty" emissions will be taxed progressively harder over the coming years (and remember, 2030 is only 11 years away, so it will be ramped up at a significant rate if its to achieve its stated goal of no new fossil fuelled Internal Combustion Engines). A Carbon Tax of €80 per ton of CO2 equates to around €0.17 per litre on petrol I think I heard someone say yesterday, and that's just a starting point. The government did at least make it sound like the revenue from this, and other tax policy driven income will be used to help and incentivize people to make their own investments in renewable sources or more efficient usage of energy. Think solar panels, heat pumps and maybe even micro wind farms in more homes to ensure that at least the majority of power required at an individual level is created by the same consumer and higher costs for energy taken from the grid rather than created. Investments in these technologies by consumers will be significant but may be subsidized through the redistribution of the revenue raised by Carbon Taxes, etc. Also, economies of scale and further technology developments will bring down the costs of many of these technologies and solutions too.

And what about our cars? Whatever we already have won't go away but the costs associated with their use and upkeep, rather than more energy neutral newer means of transport, will rocket, probably more through an aggressive usage based cost model rather than a standing costs model. These cars will be expensive hobbies, to encourage limited or minimal use. It will probably become anti-social to use them, in the same way that smoking or drink-driving have changed from being a norm or acceptable to being anti-social in the past couple of decades. Policies, such as in Japan, where you can't buy a car if you don't have a parking space (or going forward don't have a charging point), very stringent testing to diminish the long term holding of ICE powered vehicles, etc. could also help change attitudes to the hobby.

While that's a bit of PITA, I think the bottom line is that action is required. I don't have kids, but I think I'd still like there to be some future life on this planet for my nieces, nephews, etc.

[CitizenKane]

A Carbon Tax of €80 per ton of CO2 equates to around €0.17 per litre on petrol I think I heard someone say yesterday, and that's just a starting point.

When you put it that way, it doesn't actually sound that bad (assuming today's rate equates to around €0.425 per litre).

One thing I'm interested in is the effect these changes will have on the existing second hand car market (from the point of view of a potential buyer in the short term). Will this accelerate depreciation of petrol/diesel cars over the next couple of years on the basis that they will become more expensive to run and therefore less desirable to the majority of people? Or in the case of performance cars will it have the opposite effect and drive prices up on the basis these cars will start to get rarer and rarer from now on?

[dergside]

Will this accelerate depreciation of petrol/diesel cars over the next couple of years on the basis that they will become more expensive to run and therefore less desirable to the majority of people?

Yes, is the short answerr.

I would imagine that this will follow a similar pattern to the post-CO2 taxed market from 2008. After that, the market for anything with a large engine from pre-'08 or above 190g/km from post'08 pretty much dried up. Going forward I'd guess that they will stack some tax of the basis of what EU Emissions standard the car meets (and progressively increase that through the '20's) and then some taxes based on efficiency (possibly based on CO2/NOX outputs) and usage (fuel usage).

From a manufacturers perspective I'd expect to see the number of single fuel ICE cars diminish fairly rapidly from 2021-2022 as the models that are substantially electric being designed now start to hit the market and as battery technology advances fairly rapidly, so it mightn't be felt in quite the same way as most of the daily drivers gradually shift towards alternative power or hybrid (with the balance between fuel and electric power in ranges shift towards electric).

Hydrogen fuel cells are the wildcard I would say. If they can overcome the difficulties with storage and build out a distribution network it could be a game changer in terms of what the car of 2030 is.

[Smokey Bear]

I still don’t get why everyone is focusing on cars. There are much larger polluters such as planes, ships, manufacturing...

I think the problem is being approached incorrectly. We are focusing on reusing plastic bags yet finance deals are encouraging manufacturing of new cars for pcp’ers who change every 3 years.

[dergside]

I still don’t get why everyone is focusing on cars. There are much larger polluters such as planes, ships, manufacturing...

You're not wrong there Smokey, but I think the realization is dawning globally and individually that things are moving past the point where any sector can say that they'll do something after someone else (choose your target sector, farting cows, mass air transport, etc.) does something. The cows, planes, ships, etc. will get their turn, but in the meantime we have to get on with doing what can be done now. The can we've been kicking for years is finally reaching the end of the road.